As the American baseball star Yogi Berra once remarked: ‘The future ain’t what it used to be.’ It’s a neat observation that could just as easily be applied to his namesake Can Berra over the next 12 months.

Many of the confident assumptions that conservatives held grimly onto throughout the fraught Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era will not be realised by the new government. With no quick return to surplus in sight and a raft of unnecessary expenditure commitments, with the seemingly whole-hearted embrace of Gonski and the oddball GrainCorp decision, and with no immediate repeal of the carbon tax in sight, it is clear that 2014 will hold a few nasty surprises for Coalition supporters.

But stepping back from the hysterical rantings and snide predictions that have dominated much of the media, there is a strong case to be made for Tony Abbott’s unfamiliar and refreshing modus operandi. The Prime Minister’s handling of the spying tiff with Indonesia appears to have proven effective; he was resolute in protecting Australian intelligence agencies and at the same time gave the Indonesian president the necessary space, time and commitments with which to build a return to normal relationships. He even let Kevin Rudd off the hook. Similarly, Mr Abbott’s response to what will no doubt be a recurring demand throughout his first term — the attempt by ungainly companies who foolishly sacrificed long-term viability on the altar of Enterprise Bargaining to seek taxpayer handouts — is commendable. And correct.

The one safe prediction that can be made about the New Year is that Labor will carry on proving it has yet to learn the critical lesson of the last election: they lost. The shrill, undergraduate, sanctimonious style of Teams Gillard and Rudd has been adopted by their heirs. Mr Abbott was a successful opposition leader because he pointed out that Labor was hell-bent on measures that had not been approved by the electorate, such as dismantling border controls and introducing a carbon tax. Conversely, Labor are now opposing measures the electorate has given the nod to — scrapping the carbon tax, a cheaper NBN and doing whatever it takes to stop the boats. It’s as if 7 September never happened.

Mr Abbott’s preference for not responding to the whirlwind demands of Twitter and certain media is a sensible approach, but only effective in the long run if he can deliver positive results. He will be walking a tightrope this year, buffeted no doubt by unpredictable events beyond his control as he attempts to both grow the economy and reduce debt. It is unlikely he will fulfil every conservative or Liberal wish. But at the tips of the balancing pole are two counterweights that will see him safely to the other side if he doesn’t let them fall: competency and trust.

In praise of Gerard Henderson
Legend has it that when John Fairfax’s newspapers endorsed Labor leader Arthur Calwell at the 1961 federal election, Robert Menzies remarked: ‘The Sydney Morning Herald is read by our friends, but written by our enemies.’ Bear in mind that jibe when you consider the SMH’s decision to ditch Gerard Henderson’s weekly column, preferring to run the conservative on only a fortnightly basis. ‘Hendo’ declined and was snapped up by the Weekend Australian.

Mr Henderson is a big loss for Fairfax. Since January 1987, he has prowled Australian political and cultural life in columns — he’s never missed a week in more than a quarter century! — that kept the intellectual class in a perpetual state of apoplexy and his readers entertained and informed. He digs up facts and stories that embarrass journalists and academics, who frankly deserve to be embarrassed.

Unequalled in his capacity to put contemporary political events in a broader historical and international context, Mr Henderson is one of the few commentators in the nation who understands the Abbott world view. Meanwhile, it is passing strange that the various Abbott haters, such as Mike Carlton and Peter FitzSimons, remain protected species at Fairfax, despite the predictability and sneering of much of their output.

We’re reliably informed that the SMH’s editors are sounding out other conservative writers to fill the void left by Mr Henderson’s departure. Still, by jettisoning his weekly column while protecting the likes of Mr Carlton, readers could be excused for thinking Fairfax is running an anti-Liberal agenda. Somewhere, Sir Robert has a wry smile.